Atlantic futures: competing supercontinent scenarios

New oceanic crust forms at ridges, while oceanic plates descend into the mantle at subduction zones. Different assumptions about changing plate boundaries lead to futures in which the Atlantic closes or continues to widen.

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CO₂280ppm
Temp14.3°C
Sea0m
O₂21%

Annual surface temperature from CESM (T): a model estimate, not a direct observation of the past.

0 Ma: pre-industrial climate/CO₂; modern sea-level and O₂ references.

Data references
CenCO2PIP Consortium vetted productMiller et al. (2020), smoothed Cenozoic sea level relative to modernMills et al. (2023), Evolution of Atmospheric O₂ Through the Phanerozoic, Revisited, Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences 51:253–276Li et al. (2022), CESM surface temperature
Sources & methods

Glacial-interglacial cycles with 120m+ sea level swings. Homo sapiens spread from Africa across the globe, and most megafauna went extinct.

Key Life
🧑Homo sapiens🦣Mammoth🧔Neanderthals
Innovations
  • ›Language and culture
  • ›Agricultural revolution (~10,000 years ago)
  • ›Birth of civilization
Simplified Köppen
Af Rainforest
Am Monsoon
Aw Savanna
BW Desert
BS Steppe
Cf Temperate wet
Cs/Cw Temperate dry
Df Cold wet
Dw Cold dry
ET Tundra
EF Ice
CESM (Li et al. 2022)

Annual model means · 0 Ma: pre-industrial

Full exploration range1,800 Ma → Present
540 Ma → Present
Precambrian
Paleozoic
Mesozoic
Cenozoic
Cambrian
Ordovician
Devonian
Carbonif.
Permian
Triassic
Jurassic
Cretaceous
Paleogene
┆ Data transition · 540 Ma

Present